nflendzoneModel

Bayesian team-strength modeling package built on Stan/cmdstanr for the NFL EndZone ecosystem.
nfl
nflverse
cmdstanr
brms
stan
bayesian
state-space
Author

Tyler Pollard

Published

February 15, 2026

Modified

February 15, 2026

View repository source

nflendzoneModel is the Bayesian inference engine used for weekly team-strength updates and game-level probability generation.

Core Workflow Functions

  • prepare_schedule_indices()
  • prepare_stan_data()
  • fit_team_strength_model()
  • prepare_gq_data()
  • predict_team_strength()
  • extract_game_predictions()

Stan Model Assets

  • team_strength_fit.stan
  • team_strength_gq.stan
  • team_strength_bivar_negbinom.stan
  • team_strength_recursive.stan

Operational Role

  1. Consumes model-ready data from pipeline outputs.
  2. Fits Bayesian state-space models via cmdstanr.
  3. Publishes posterior summaries to nflendzoneData.
  4. Supports app-side probability reconstruction workflows.
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